Dr. Crane does see an oil independent future for North America, U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The U.S. oil imports are down, below China's, primarily due to energy efficiency. The auto and truck fuel efficiency laws are working with our peak consumption being in 2007. Our oil production is up due to sandstone and shale deposit extraction. We are now doing horizontal drilling and also Fracking....forcing sand, water, diesel fuel into the ground to break open the oil deposits.
Fracking is also being used to extract natural gas with concerns about water and air pollution. He said they are improving the methods to reduce the risk. He said this has much less environmental damage that coal mining. We have major oil and gas resources in the U.S. with places like North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas and Pennsylvania having some of the greatest. California is also a major player.
Regarding prices, they will go up. The international oil market means that if we reduce consumption here, India and China are increasing the demand so the prices go up.
He sees a continued reliance on natural gas and oil with less on coal. Regarding electric cars, he says it depends on where the electricity comes from....if it is from coal fired plants...it still pollutes and uses fossil fuel. He does not see a future in more reliance on atomic energy due to the high costs.
He sees that the renewable energy sources as being important....particularly wind. Solar power is still expensive. Regarding the oil from tar sands in Alberta, Canada, this is a heavier oil and it requires a lot of energy to get it out of the ground. Rail cars are being used to transport to refineries and to export.
Bottom line: Our best steps to energy independence is increased efficiency.
The acrylic and ink on paper art piece below is called "Delaunay in Mind" by Nina Bovasso, 2004. It is one of many works of art loaned to the RAND for display at their headquarters by Peter Norton who is on their board.
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