Tuesday night, I attended a lecture by Bruce W. Bennett on Deterrence and North Korea at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica. He is a senior defense analyst at RAND with expertise in strategy, force planning and counterproliferation. He is an expert in Northeast Asian military issues.
He talked about the dilemma of North Korea. They have anywhere from 6 to 20 nuclear bombs and are developing missiles to send them anywhere. Our talks, threats, and sanctions haven't worked. Their leader Kim Jong-Un is an unknown. Until October of 2010, his public profile had been non-existent without even a photo of him since his teens. He is associated with the disastrous currency revaluation in 2009. This perhaps led to "saber rattling" such as the sinking of a South Korean warship and the shelling of a S. Korean island. But with nuclear bombs, they have the attention of the world and a defense against possible invasion and take over from an outside source. This is what Iran is wanting as well as perhaps other countries.
Bennett says that this is a time to maximize deterrence of North Korea such as posturing defenses to meet any North Korean aggression. The concern is that a nuclear test would be seen as an act of desperation rather than strength. He says a civil war would be disastrous for both Koreas. He suggest that South Korea should encourage scientist to defect...dropping leaflets offering millions of dollars as a reward.
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